Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.456771 4.892346 5.380338 5.973699 6.684324 7.519675 8.594159
2025-01-19 3.747501 4.275560 4.908678 5.741924 6.839764 8.285505 10.428710
2025-01-26 3.456465 4.055750 4.811565 5.870268 7.381468 9.587804 13.362118
2025-02-02 3.301474 3.966442 4.842364 6.139918 8.138388 11.380866 17.913994
2025-02-09 3.146499 3.850347 4.809955 6.298414 8.746721 13.128316 23.607044
2025-02-16 2.950309 3.654752 4.637765 6.212071 8.927722 14.168291 28.693867
2025-02-23 2.793056 3.497194 4.500167 6.153493 9.134799 15.330311 35.516941
2025-03-02 2.654402 3.353697 4.367310 6.080515 9.294557 16.454419 44.124931
2025-03-09 2.533776 3.226706 4.246700 6.009907 9.440873 17.615829 55.728266
2025-03-16 2.440041 3.132142 4.166951 5.997683 9.700350 19.207011 75.701231
2025-03-23 2.382903 3.087446 4.160488 6.112541 10.254428 21.988838 126.195606
2025-03-30 2.286174 2.976941 4.039521 6.002281 10.280584 23.130696 178.388445
2025-04-06 2.188007 2.861010 3.904940 5.858349 10.216281 24.008885 260.198951
2025-04-13 2.080143 2.725474 3.730555 5.623227 9.894568 23.778752 319.486351
2025-04-20 2.046137 2.702290 3.740733 5.746317 10.489798 27.772674 2173.358031
2025-04-27 2.037271 2.717326 3.815492 6.006363 11.522232 35.290654 NaN
2025-05-04 2.010565 2.702216 3.836724 6.159119 12.315674 43.297409 NaN
2025-05-11 1.949908 2.629455 3.751819 6.075912 12.384351 46.678132 NaN
2025-05-18 1.897186 2.567353 3.682304 6.019445 12.527704 51.184721 NaN
2025-05-25 1.845822 2.505397 3.609636 5.949079 12.612931 55.632732 NaN
2025-06-01 1.797858 2.447204 3.540748 5.880980 12.693733 60.576474 NaN
2025-06-08 1.760292 2.404745 3.498289 5.869188 12.971721 69.271611 NaN
2025-06-15 1.740732 2.391321 3.508295 5.979962 13.733737 90.189675 NaN